Quick answer
At current 6.8% mortgage rates, buying wins in 3 of 75 cities tracked (break-even under 10 years). 48 cities never break even within 30 years — renting + investing the down payment is financially better. Fastest break-even: Philadelphia at year 7.
Rent vs Buy · 2026
Rent vs Buy: 49 US Cities (2026)
Real break-even year by city using each state's actual property tax rate, average homeowners insurance, and 6.8% 30-year mortgages. Accounts for opportunity cost — what the down payment earns if invested at 7% instead.
Buy-Friendly Cities (break-even under 10 years)
3 cities where homeownership pulls ahead of renting within a reasonable career horizon.
Cities Where Renting Wins (30-year horizon)
At current prices and rates, buying never surpasses renting + 7% invested. If you're in any of these cities, the standard "buy to build equity" advice doesn't apply.
San Francisco
Rent wins
Home $1100K · Own $7,482 vs rent $3,800
Honolulu
Rent wins
Home $875K · Own $5,596 vs rent $2,850
Los Angeles
Rent wins
Home $850K · Own $5,816 vs rent $3,200
San Diego
Rent wins
Home $820K · Own $5,616 vs rent $3,000
Seattle
Rent wins
Home $780K · Own $5,455 vs rent $2,750
Boston
Rent wins
Home $720K · Own $5,247 vs rent $3,400
Miami
Rent wins
Home $635K · Own $4,985 vs rent $3,100
Denver
Rent wins
Home $565K · Own $3,876 vs rent $2,250
Fort Lauderdale
Rent wins
Home $550K · Own $4,401 vs rent $2,800
Austin
Rent wins
Home $548K · Own $4,499 vs rent $2,100
Salt Lake City
Rent wins
Home $520K · Own $3,493 vs rent $1,850
Charleston
Rent wins
Home $510K · Own $3,535 vs rent $2,250
Portland
Rent wins
Home $498K · Own $3,506 vs rent $1,980
Colorado Springs
Rent wins
Home $465K · Own $3,226 vs rent $1,800
Reno
Rent wins
Home $460K · Own $3,092 vs rent $1,820
Asheville
Rent wins
Home $460K · Own $3,251 vs rent $2,000
Sacramento
Rent wins
Home $450K · Own $3,149 vs rent $1,980
Nashville
Rent wins
Home $445K · Own $3,122 vs rent $1,950
Boise
Rent wins
Home $445K · Own $3,060 vs rent $1,720
Eugene
Rent wins
Home $445K · Own $3,143 vs rent $1,700
Raleigh
Rent wins
Home $420K · Own $2,982 vs rent $1,860
St. Petersburg
Rent wins
Home $420K · Own $3,508 vs rent $2,100
Phoenix
Rent wins
Home $415K · Own $2,895 vs rent $1,720
Las Vegas
Rent wins
Home $415K · Own $2,798 vs rent $1,720
Charlotte
Rent wins
Home $395K · Own $2,813 vs rent $1,790
Tampa
Rent wins
Home $390K · Own $3,303 vs rent $2,100
Anchorage
Rent wins
Home $385K · Own $2,811 vs rent $1,500
Dallas
Rent wins
Home $380K · Own $3,217 vs rent $1,850
Providence
Rent wins
Home $380K · Own $2,916 vs rent $2,000
Fresno
Rent wins
Home $375K · Own $2,650 vs rent $1,700
Orlando
Rent wins
Home $370K · Own $3,165 vs rent $1,980
Madison
Rent wins
Home $370K · Own $2,885 vs rent $1,720
Spokane
Rent wins
Home $360K · Own $2,572 vs rent $1,350
Fort Worth
Rent wins
Home $340K · Own $2,912 vs rent $1,620
Minneapolis
Rent wins
Home $320K · Own $2,418 vs rent $1,750
Jacksonville
Rent wins
Home $310K · Own $2,753 vs rent $1,620
Houston
Rent wins
Home $305K · Own $2,644 vs rent $1,620
San Antonio
Rent wins
Home $285K · Own $2,492 vs rent $1,480
Tucson
Rent wins
Home $285K · Own $2,040 vs rent $1,350
Albuquerque
Rent wins
Home $285K · Own $2,089 vs rent $1,320
Lexington
Rent wins
Home $285K · Own $2,104 vs rent $1,350
Tallahassee
Rent wins
Home $270K · Own $2,479 vs rent $1,450
Columbus
Rent wins
Home $265K · Own $2,069 vs rent $1,480
Kansas City
Rent wins
Home $255K · Own $1,949 vs rent $1,390
Omaha
Rent wins
Home $250K · Own $2,198 vs rent $1,320
Des Moines
Rent wins
Home $245K · Own $1,961 vs rent $1,350
Oklahoma City
Rent wins
Home $210K · Own $1,840 vs rent $1,150
Wichita
Rent wins
Home $180K · Own $1,625 vs rent $1,100
All 49 Cities
| City | Home | Rent 2BR | Own/mo | Gap | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PhiladelphiaPA | $280K | $2,350 | $2,155 | +$-195 | Year 7 |
| DetroitMI | $175K | $1,320 | $1,425 | +$105 | Year 10 |
| MobileAL | $175K | $1,250 | $1,377 | +$127 | Year 10 |
| PittsburghPA | $225K | $1,580 | $1,752 | +$172 | Year 11 |
| ClevelandOH | $185K | $1,320 | $1,477 | +$157 | Year 11 |
| BaltimoreMD | $315K | $1,980 | $2,316 | +$336 | Year 13 |
| HartfordCT | $260K | $1,900 | $2,193 | +$293 | Year 13 |
| MemphisTN | $195K | $1,220 | $1,462 | +$242 | Year 14 |
| St. LouisMO | $215K | $1,380 | $1,674 | +$294 | Year 15 |
| RochesterNY | $195K | $1,300 | $1,581 | +$281 | Year 16 |
| BirminghamAL | $230K | $1,400 | $1,728 | +$328 | Year 16 |
| ChicagoIL | $340K | $2,350 | $2,858 | +$508 | Year 17 |
| BuffaloNY | $215K | $1,400 | $1,731 | +$331 | Year 18 |
| New YorkNY | $750K | $4,500 | $5,739 | +$1,239 | Year 19 |
| Little RockAR | $195K | $1,250 | $1,589 | +$339 | Year 21 |
| AtlantaGA | $385K | $2,100 | $2,787 | +$687 | Year 22 |
| LouisvilleKY | $235K | $1,350 | $1,767 | +$417 | Year 22 |
| MilwaukeeWI | $235K | $1,450 | $1,870 | +$420 | Year 22 |
| Washington, DCDC | $650K | $3,200 | $4,380 | +$1,180 | Year 22 |
| IndianapolisIN | $240K | $1,320 | $1,757 | +$437 | Year 23 |
| New OrleansLA | $250K | $1,620 | $2,085 | +$465 | Year 23 |
| Virginia BeachVA | $340K | $1,750 | $2,397 | +$647 | Year 25 |
| RichmondVA | $330K | $1,680 | $2,330 | +$650 | Year 26 |
| ChattanoogaTN | $295K | $1,550 | $2,126 | +$576 | Year 26 |
| CincinnatiOH | $235K | $1,380 | $1,847 | +$467 | Year 27 |
| SavannahGA | $330K | $1,750 | $2,416 | +$666 | Year 28 |
| KnoxvilleTN | $280K | $1,450 | $2,026 | +$576 | Year 30 |
| AustinTX | $548K | $2,100 | $4,499 | +$2,399 | Never (30y) |
| DenverCO | $565K | $2,250 | $3,876 | +$1,626 | Never (30y) |
| NashvilleTN | $445K | $1,950 | $3,122 | +$1,172 | Never (30y) |
| PortlandOR | $498K | $1,980 | $3,506 | +$1,526 | Never (30y) |
| SeattleWA | $780K | $2,750 | $5,455 | +$2,705 | Never (30y) |
| PhoenixAZ | $415K | $1,720 | $2,895 | +$1,175 | Never (30y) |
| CharlotteNC | $395K | $1,790 | $2,813 | +$1,023 | Never (30y) |
| RaleighNC | $420K | $1,860 | $2,982 | +$1,122 | Never (30y) |
| MiamiFL | $635K | $3,100 | $4,985 | +$1,885 | Never (30y) |
| Los AngelesCA | $850K | $3,200 | $5,816 | +$2,616 | Never (30y) |
| San FranciscoCA | $1100K | $3,800 | $7,482 | +$3,682 | Never (30y) |
| HoustonTX | $305K | $1,620 | $2,644 | +$1,024 | Never (30y) |
| DallasTX | $380K | $1,850 | $3,217 | +$1,367 | Never (30y) |
| BostonMA | $720K | $3,400 | $5,247 | +$1,847 | Never (30y) |
| San DiegoCA | $820K | $3,000 | $5,616 | +$2,616 | Never (30y) |
| MinneapolisMN | $320K | $1,750 | $2,418 | +$668 | Never (30y) |
| TampaFL | $390K | $2,100 | $3,303 | +$1,203 | Never (30y) |
| OrlandoFL | $370K | $1,980 | $3,165 | +$1,185 | Never (30y) |
| Las VegasNV | $415K | $1,720 | $2,798 | +$1,078 | Never (30y) |
| Salt Lake CityUT | $520K | $1,850 | $3,493 | +$1,643 | Never (30y) |
| ColumbusOH | $265K | $1,480 | $2,069 | +$589 | Never (30y) |
| Kansas CityMO | $255K | $1,390 | $1,949 | +$559 | Never (30y) |
| San AntonioTX | $285K | $1,480 | $2,492 | +$1,012 | Never (30y) |
| SacramentoCA | $450K | $1,980 | $3,149 | +$1,169 | Never (30y) |
| Oklahoma CityOK | $210K | $1,150 | $1,840 | +$690 | Never (30y) |
| BoiseID | $445K | $1,720 | $3,060 | +$1,340 | Never (30y) |
| OmahaNE | $250K | $1,320 | $2,198 | +$878 | Never (30y) |
| MadisonWI | $370K | $1,720 | $2,885 | +$1,165 | Never (30y) |
| Fort WorthTX | $340K | $1,620 | $2,912 | +$1,292 | Never (30y) |
| JacksonvilleFL | $310K | $1,620 | $2,753 | +$1,133 | Never (30y) |
| TucsonAZ | $285K | $1,350 | $2,040 | +$690 | Never (30y) |
| AlbuquerqueNM | $285K | $1,320 | $2,089 | +$769 | Never (30y) |
| RenoNV | $460K | $1,820 | $3,092 | +$1,272 | Never (30y) |
| HonoluluHI | $875K | $2,850 | $5,596 | +$2,746 | Never (30y) |
| AshevilleNC | $460K | $2,000 | $3,251 | +$1,251 | Never (30y) |
| CharlestonSC | $510K | $2,250 | $3,535 | +$1,285 | Never (30y) |
| Fort LauderdaleFL | $550K | $2,800 | $4,401 | +$1,601 | Never (30y) |
| St. PetersburgFL | $420K | $2,100 | $3,508 | +$1,408 | Never (30y) |
| TallahasseeFL | $270K | $1,450 | $2,479 | +$1,029 | Never (30y) |
| ProvidenceRI | $380K | $2,000 | $2,916 | +$916 | Never (30y) |
| Des MoinesIA | $245K | $1,350 | $1,961 | +$611 | Never (30y) |
| WichitaKS | $180K | $1,100 | $1,625 | +$525 | Never (30y) |
| SpokaneWA | $360K | $1,350 | $2,572 | +$1,222 | Never (30y) |
| FresnoCA | $375K | $1,700 | $2,650 | +$950 | Never (30y) |
| Colorado SpringsCO | $465K | $1,800 | $3,226 | +$1,426 | Never (30y) |
| EugeneOR | $445K | $1,700 | $3,143 | +$1,443 | Never (30y) |
| LexingtonKY | $285K | $1,350 | $2,104 | +$754 | Never (30y) |
| AnchorageAK | $385K | $1,500 | $2,811 | +$1,311 | Never (30y) |
Sorted by break-even year. "Own/mo" = P&I + property tax + insurance + 1%/yr maintenance.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it better to rent or buy in the US right now?
At current 6.8% mortgage rates and 2024-2025 housing prices, renting + investing the down payment beats buying for the full 30-year horizon in many major metros. Cities where buying still wins on reasonable timelines: Memphis, Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis — all have break-even in 8-15 years. Cities where renting wins 30-year: SF, LA, San Diego, Boston, Miami at current prices.
What is a good break-even year for buying a home?
A break-even year under 7 means buying wins in almost any realistic scenario. 7-12 years is reasonable if you're confident you'll stay. 12-20 years is marginal — works for settled families but not early-career. Over 20 years means renting is effectively the better choice unless you strongly prefer homeownership for non-financial reasons.
How does the calculator handle opportunity cost?
Our calculator assumes the renter invests the down payment (the same lump sum the buyer put into the house) plus any monthly savings (when ownership costs exceed rent) at a 7% annual real return (S&P long-term historical). Buyers meanwhile build equity as the mortgage principal pays down and the home appreciates 3%/year. We compare both positions year-by-year to find the true break-even.
Why is buying so hard to justify in 2026?
Two reasons stacked: mortgage rates are at 6.8% (vs 3% in 2021), and home prices have stayed near 2022 peaks. The combination means monthly P&I is roughly 80% higher than it was four years ago for the same home. Meanwhile rent growth has cooled. Break-even math that favored buying strongly in 2019-2021 now favors renting in most metros — the numbers have just changed.